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Although 2025 was already shaping up to be the worst year in modern history regarding the post-1945 rules-based world order, the past week has been among the most devastating so far. Israel deepened its disregard toward global agreements by sending a squadron of warplanes toward the Gulf state, bombing a Hamas delegation engaged in ceasefire talks within Qatar’s capital. The last meaningful forum for diplomatic negotiation appears to have vanished completely.

No fewer than a group of unmanned aerial vehicles from Russia breached Poland’s airspace. For the first time, allied military aircraft were deployed against enemy targets inside a Nato country. Regardless of if this violation was a technical mishap or intentional testing by Moscow, as western experts believe, it represented the nearest the world has come to outright war after WWII,” Poland’s prime minister, the head of government, said.

And then, Charlie Kirk, an outspoken right-wing figure and close Donald Trump ally, was shot dead during a speech to university attendees and political followers on a campus in Utah. In the absence of proof regarding the perpetrator or motives, Trump immediately blamed “those on the radical left,” claiming they of rhetoric “directly responsible for the terrorism occurring currently across the nation today.”

Asked how the divided nation might reconcile following the murder, he responded he “couldn’t care less”. The reasoning provided for that was chilling: “The radicals on the right are radical because they oppose criminal activity … Leftist activists are the problem – being dangerous and despicable and strategically clever.” This is how political division hardens into tribalism. Thus cycles of hostility rush headlong into a point of no return.

In reality, more than three-quarters of all extremist-related killings in the US over the last 10 years were perpetrated by rightwing extremists, while left-wing radicals accountable for only a fraction of them. Trump condemned ideologically motivated attacks in general a day later – but did not acknowledge the recent spate of attacks targeting liberal figures, including several killings. To him, the issue remains perpetually others, and not the loyal supporters constituting his base.

The societal repercussions of Kirk’s death are certain to emerge in the coming weeks, but the biggest danger in a polarised climate is that the shooting transforms into a historical parallel of our age. The deliberate burning on 27 February 1933 marked Germany’s pivot away from democracy to outright dictatorship. The Nazi leader, newly appointed as head of state, capitalized on the incident to extinguish basic rights under previous governance – free speech, media independence, association, public gathering.

“Those opposing us will be cut down,” he said, surveying the damaged structure. Numerous leftist activists were jailed, including all 81 Communist deputies within the legislature. Once opposition was suppressed, the ruling party quickly cemented control.

In today’s US, the tragic killing has captivated the nation, galvanising the Maga movement and Trump’s supporters, and he knows it. An extremist figure, Matt Forney, clamoured for the arrest of every Democratic politician, openly claiming the murder as the movement’s turning point.

In truth, this incident serves as that could rescue a struggling administration scarred by a sharp drop in job numbers, a weakening dollar, and real estate turmoil. The former president grieved like a lost relative, but the rhetoric implied it might become focused equally on targeting opponents as justice. Immediately following the murder, he vowed to pursue “each and every one of those who contributed in this tragedy … including the organisations providing backing.” He specifically mentioned George Soros, the American-Hungarian philanthropist and political contributor. “He’s a bad guy,” he informed a news outlet, he “should be put in jail.”

The reasons for the assassination remains unclear. The political views belonging to the attacker, a young individual, appear as muddled similar to Thomas Matthew Crooks, the 20 year old who tried to kill Trump in Pennsylvania. Does this represent the radical left targeting right-wing figures – or is it the strange, chaotic subculture from internet forums spilling into reality? Phrases etched on to the bullet casings at the scene appear unlike a political statement and more like a mix of puerile memes and virtual world allusions.

But it is hard not to fear that the repression of dissenting scholars, lawyers, media workers, civil servants, armed forces members, and judicial figures in the US may increase. Already, reactions on social media resulted in multiple instances of sackings and diplomatic staff have cautioned foreign nationals against endorsing or make light of Kirk’s assassination, instructing consulates to take “appropriate action” against any foreigners engaging in such behavior.

Trump has long thrived on chaos and disorder. When genuine emergencies are absent, he invents scenarios – like nonexistent crime waves in Los Angeles, Washington DC and Chicago. Manufactured unrest advances his ambitions. Now he has been handed an ideal opportunity. No wonder he couldn’t care less about national unity.

The shooting offers an ideal justification to strengthen control, muzzling opposition, and centralizing authority – so that his successors may inherit total governmental power, irrespective of charisma, merit or mandate. Ultimately, all authoritarian regimes has to be built first; once entrenched, it becomes far easier to uphold.

Democratic systems and international frameworks are far from perfect, but they have delivered stability, advancement and prosperity – the very opposite of dictatorial rule. To suggest that the US, the architect of the postwar order, could soon slide into full-blown autocracy, with rulers adopting historical extremist mindsets, may seem far-fetched.

However, alternatively, it is not far-fetched at all. Authoritarian rule remained recent history during the upbringing of individuals within modern democratic Europe came of age. Across European states, numerous households have some history of the death, destruction, hatred and destitution resulting from oppressive regimes. To safeguard coming years, they should examine our recent past.