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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently serves as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence wins the prize. However, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or simply the biggest shock.

However this year's field is fundamentally different. The group of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners declining and recent underperformers rising collectively. During an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this wild and entertaining season, he's facing several other elite candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the runaway choice. Yet this is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still