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An ex-colonel from the special forces, minister of state Al Carns has recently been making strategic moves warning that the UK must ready itself for war with Russia.

“The shadow of war is knocking on Europe’s door once more. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to prevent it,” he stated, in remarks that exceed previous admonitions by his boss, the defence secretary.

“As a whole society – what is their role if we get caught in an existential crisis, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we mobilise the nation to support a military endeavour?”

It was stark language from the middle-aged born in Scotland MP, who has had an exceptionally swift rise to his role of minister for the military.

A Swift Political Ascent

And inevitably for a politician with a background in the armed forces, there is conjecture about whether he is a potential future leader – as with, at various points, previous colleagues from a service background before him.

This time, however, some governing party MPs think there could be a real prospect of Carns being a contender if and when the opportunity presents itself.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been involved in politics for longer than it seems, as a former defence advisor to three previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the danger of being overhyped as a politician with a personal history colleagues think will appeal to the public – without enough consideration of whether they have the track record and shrewdness to make it to the top.

From the Battlefield to Westminster

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and state educated, before enlisting in the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He rose through the ranks and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “in recognition of gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a shock when he left the armed forces after 24 years of service to run as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, just prior to he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately identified as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a minister for veterans affairs straight after the 2024 election. He was elevated later that year to the more prominent position with a portfolio covering all the military.

Public Profile and Partisan Combat

Chiselled and confident, Carns has been an occasional media performer for the government, and has been an effective political attack dog when putting pressure on rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to break a world record this year along with former military colleagues by climbing Mount Everest in under five days without acclimatising on the mountain, aided by xenon gas.

Ambitions and Party Skepticism

His name entered the conversation as a possible future leader seriously around the time of a deputy contest last autumn, when his supporters began sounding out MPs about a run for the job. That did not gain traction, with the prime minister's office strongly supporting another candidate.

Since then, feature articles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to stop from challenging the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be prime ministerial timber, others think he is making himself appear too ambitious when there is no opening at the top. There is also a apprehension about the rapid rise of a high flyer from outside politics.

“It's not proven that being senior in the military translates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” says one MP. “He is an unknown quantity.”